Davis Sports Deli's
Week 16 NFL Review
By: Patrick Crawley

 

Week 16 Deli Picks Review - December 29, 2007

This week was Christmas, so the Weekly Review came late this week. Not that any of you would have read it on Christmas Day anyway. Hopefully you were with your family on Christmas. Or, if you don't have any family, hopefully you were with a high-priced call girl. Like Jack Nicholson.

If any of you can remember back to when the picks were actually made, you will remember that Paul and Collin changed their team name from Team Kool-Aid to Team Awesome. The switch (initiated by Paul, if you couldn't guess) was far from inspired. Consequently, Team Awesome had an uninspired Week 16, going 5-5 and losing to Team Fischman. This puts the Fischman Bros squarely in the lead heading into the playoffs (see below for season rankings).

Speaking of the playoffs, we'll have a new and improved system for picking games which factors in an adjustment for favored teams. But you'll have to wait until next week to find out about that. This week we are taking a break in The Picks because of various vacations and a shortage of relevant Week 17 games. So, for now, enjoy the Week 16 review.

For a full listing of the Deli Staff's Week 16 picks, go here.

Scoreboard:

Seasonal -
Team Fischman: 21-9
Team Kool-Aid: 19-11

Weekly -
Team Fischman: 7-3
Team Awesome: 5-5

Individual -
Aaron (Team Fischman): 2-3
Joshua (Team Fischman): 5-0
Paul (Team Awesome): 2-3
Collin (Team Awesome): 3-2

Bill Walsh "Genius of the Week" Award -
Joshua Fischman : 5-0 win-loss record, 13.6 point average margin of victory, 1 ambitious upset (Bengals over Browns)

Analysis:

There were quite a few surprises this past weekend in the NFL and, like a true genius, Joshua Fischman of Team Fischman predicted each of the surprises in his Split. In Week 16, Joshua became the second Fischman brother to go 5-0, ensuring that his Team Fischman beat the newly-minted Team Awesome in the third week of our competition. Last week, Joshua picked the Eagles to win in New Orleans. He picked the Lions, fresh off of a six-game losing skid, to beat the Chiefs. And he picked the Bengals to redeem themselves against the Browns at home. Congratulations, Joshua, you get the Genius of the Week honor. I hope you enjoy your celebratory bowl of Cocoa Pebbles, or whatever you geniuses eat.

Speaking of surprise victories, let's re-cap the madness that was Week 16.

Surprise Upset #1: San Francisco 21, Tampa Bay 19

Although I refuse to put any sort of "savior" tag on Shaun Hill just yet, even I have to admit that his two-week run has been impressive. In Hill's two starts, the Niners are 2-0 and the third-string QB has thrown for 501 yards and 5 touchdowns. And while he may not be the most overwhelmingly talented QB the Bay has ever seen, Hill certainly has been doing his job well.

With that said, I can't help but shake the feeling that there is a bit of overdramatization still going on here. Hill has been a good quarterback for the Niners, but his accomplishments are somewhat Colin Hanks-like. You know, Colin Hanks, Tom's son. Like Colin, Hill gets the favorable nod of appreciation thanks, for the most part, to the benefit of comparison.Think about it. When Colin Hanks starred in the movie Orange County, the critics gave him a pass, more or less, for his barely-above-average acting because he was surrounded by a bunch of no-name support characters (other than Jack Black, of course, and the mother from Home Alone). Same goes for his turn on The OC. Hanks got to shine in those roles, but only because the actors around him had less appeal than a naked Kathy Bates in About Schmidt.

Don't believe me? Ok, here's a test. If you can tell me about the careers of any of the actors on the following list without going to IMDB, I promise to completely rescind my argument about Colin Hanks. Ready? Schyler Fisk, Brett Harrison, Kyle Howard, R.J. Knoll, Benjamin McKenzie, Melinda Clarke. See my point?

Like Young Hanks, Hill benefits from doing a pretty good job in an environment where everyone else is completely mediocre. Next to Alex Smith and Trent Dilfer, Hill tends to look like a future Pro Bowler. But in reality, he's just a barely-above-average quarterback who is riding a two week hot streak. For crying out loud, Niners fan, Hill hasn't even played a road game this season. Let's see how he does in the frozen tundra of Cleveland this week against a Browns team fighting for their playoff lives. Until then, I'm not conceding anything.

By the way, if Jeff Garcia finishes out this game, the Bucs take home a victory here rather than a two-point loss. But thanks to a clinched division title, the Bucs fought through the second half with everyone's favorite McCown (Luke) playing QB instead of Garcia. Unlike the effeminate red-head, McCown was careless with the ball and had a crucial interception run back into his own red zone by Nate Clements. Without that pick, the Niners don't score on a Frank Gore screen pass and the Bucs take home victory number 10. See, Niners fans, this wasn't even a legitimate victory. Don't count your Shaun Hill's before they've hatched.

Surprise Upset #2: Chicago 35, Green Bay 7

Ok, this was the real surprise of Week 16. Let's go through the checklist of motivations for the Packers to win this game and then you tell me who you thought was going to win. Motivation #1: homefield advantage in the NFC hanging in the balance. Motivation #2: sad-sack QB Kyle Orton waiting on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Motivation #3: you are playing a downtrodden, depleted Chicago Bears team just waiting for you to run them over so that their season can end. Ok, that was anticlimactic. I've run out of motivations.

But honestly, once you get past Motivation #1, is there really anything else that matters? For crying out loud, the Packers were playing for the chance to face Dallas at Lambeau Field in the NFC Conference Championship game (provided that both of those teams make it that far). Keep in mind that the Packers have already lost once to Dallas in Dallas, that Tony Romo is prone to mistakes in cold weather and that Lambeau Field is the ultimate away team disadvantage. How is it that you blow a game against a team with no passing game and no running game with those kind of playoff implications on the line?

Well, although that was a rhetorical question, I'll answer it anyway. You blow it with a very, very poor showing by your Pro Bowl quarterback (Brett Favre was 17/32 for 153 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT), two blocked punts by the opposing defense and zero forced turnovers against the saddest QB-RB combo this league has ever seen (Kyle Orton and The Other Adrian Petersen, respectively).

Although I'm somewhat disappointed in Green Bay for blowing the one chance they had at getting back to the Super Bowl, I have to say that I am quite pleased for this win. If nothing else it gives me yet another reason to taunt Rookie Paul. Hey Paul, didn't you say this Packers game was "a lock"? Didn't you call the Packers "the Greatest Show on ICE"? What happened to the Packers defense, man? They made Kyle Orton look like Joe Montana out there. What happened to Wisconsin's crown prince, his Majesty Brett Favre? Two picks, 0 touchdowns. I thought that guy was going to the Pro Bowl. Is there any way they can take that back?

Looks like another tough road to the Super Bowl for Mr. Grizzly Beard and company. Better get an early jump on your tickets to Texas Stadium. I hear these Dallas home playoff games sell out pretty fast.

Surprise Upset #3: Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 14

I'm not going to beat around the bush on this one. Like Joshua, I too had a sense that this was going to happen. It's a little too farfetched to assume that Marvin Lewis, Chad Johnson and Carson Palmer were going to roll over and let the Browns walk away with this one after the Browns laid that savage 51-45 victory on them in the second week of the season. Nevermind the playoff implications or the fact that the Bengals have been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention since Week 11. This game was about pride.

The rap all year was that the Bengals had an atrocious defense (and, despite holding the Browns to only 14 points, I am still quite certain that their defense is miserable). However, after having surrendered 51 points to Cleveland fourteen weeks ago, it seems to me that the Bengals D had already seen every conceivable offensive play that the Browns had to throw at them. With that knowledge, Chinedum Ndukwe and the others in the Bengals secondary were able to pick off Browns QB Derek Anderson four times; two of which happened to be in the red zone. The heavy winds in Cleveland during the game didn't hurt, either.

With the Bengals up 19-0, Anderson finally decided that his degree of difficulty had been raised high enough and he began to play the Browns back into the game with two TD passes to Braylon Edwards. He'll need that comeback experience in the playoffs, if the Browns end up getting there. Their wild card passport is stamped only after a victory at home against the 49ers and a loss by the Tennessee Titans (who will undoubtedly choke in Indy against the Colts).

Speaking of playoffs, if the Browns do make it into the postseason, they will be severely challenged. During the season, they played only three playoff-bound opponents (the Steelers twice, the Patriots and the Seahawks) and won only one of those four games. That lone victory was over Seattle, at home, in overtime. Suffice it to say that a victory like that is no ringing endorsement for postseason support. The only quality AFC opponent that Cleveland beat this year was Buffalo in Week 15. They beat Buffalo by only one score, didn't get into the end zone and won only because of a violent snowstorm that left California boys Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards more disoriented than a Sebastian Janakowski roofie. Yet we're supposed to believe these guys can get past Round 1? I don't think so.

Of course, the Titans have only beaten one playoff team, also (a Week 1 over Jacksonville). And that game was decided by a field goal as well. So, basically whoever gets this last wild card spot is screwed worse than an albino in the Sahara without sunscreen. Best of luck to you both, Tennessee and Cleveland. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Surprise Upset #4: Washington 32, Minnesota 21

If you thought Kyle Orton was a bad QB, what do you make of the Tavaris Jackson - Todd Collins quarterback match-up? Personally I call it the Battle of the Incompetents, but I'm sure there are far more creative names than that one floating around out there. Which brings me to my next question. If you're a Minnesota Viking fan, what do you make of your team when your starting quarterback is Tavaris Jackson? After years of losing, are you satisfied that your team has a great run defense, two terrific running backs and arguably the best offensive line in the NFL? Or are you pissed off because your QB can't tell a weak-side zone blitz from man-to-man coverage?

If I'm a Vikings fan, it has to be the latter. Realistically, there is only one flaw to this team and it is the quarterback play. Other than that this team looks like an NFC Championship contender, does it not?

Thanks to that one fatal flaw, opposing defenses can stack the defensive line all day against Minnesota, QB spy with a safety or a middle linebacker and intercept mistake pass after mistake pass that gets thrown blindly over the middle. While I'm not exactly sure that that's the tact Washington took in beating the Vikings last weekend, I can read a box score and the box score says that Adrian Peterson ran for only 27 yards on Sunday while Jackson threw 2 interceptions. This doesn't bode well for Minny as they head into a playoff match-up against Dallas. That is, if they end up making the playoffs at all. In order to get into the playoffs, Minnesota has to beat Denver at home and pray that Dallas doesn't sit Romo, Barber and Witten, in additon to T.O. If Washington wins at home against Dallas, the Redskins find themselves with the most improbable playoff birth since...the Chiefs last season. Now that's parity!

Anyway, neither Paul nor Aaron predicted that Todd Collins would outplay Jackson, so Washington played spoiler for both Team Awesome and Team Fischman in Week 16. Let's see if they can play that same role this week in Dallas.

 

That's it for our Week 16 Review. Hopefully you've enjoyed it more than the Sports Gal's rant over at ESPN.com. Until next week...

If you liked this article, be sure to check out Aaron Fischman's 2007-08 Bowl Coverage and our interview with Colorado star receiver Scotty McKnight.