NBA Top 25 Under 25
                                                         Ellis-Bogut Comparison

                                            By: Aaron Fischman

 

October 13, 2008 - Looking Back at the 2005 Draft: Ellis vs. Bogut

With the first overall pick in the 2005 NBA draft, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Andrew Bogut; as expected. 39 selections later, the Golden State Warriors chose a high school player from Mississippi. That player was Monta Ellis.

Comparing those two picks three years later, surely you'd think that Bogut would be the superior player. After all, the Australian center from the University of Utah was the consensus #1 pick. Not so. Three years later, Ellis is quite evidently the better player.

That assertion is backed not only by stats, but also by Davis Sports Deli's bi-monthly Top 25 Under 25 rankings. Besides the opening edition, Ellis has ranked ahead of Bogut every time. In fact in the history of the T25-U25 rankings, Ellis has never dropped a spot (though that may change with his recent injury and suspension). He has improved his position every time with the exception of the 7th edition, when he remained in the 10th spot.

Bogut, on the other hand, began the 2007-08 season hovering around the final spot (#25). In fact, he even got bumped off the third edition by his former teammate Yi Jianlian. Since then, Bogut has hovered around the 20th spot, peaking at #19 in the 5th edition.

Inconsistency is the primary reason for Bogut's fluctuation. Here's an example of Bogut's instability from game-to-game. On November 24, 2007, Bogut recorded 39 quality minutes of play (final stats: 16 points, 14 rebounds, 50% FG) in a 97-95 victory over the Mavericks. After two days off, Bogut then recorded a 6-point stinker against the Sixers. The Bucks lost by 15.

This kind of inconsistency plagued Bogut last season. Despite 14.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, Bogut also compiled 15 single-digit scoring games and had 14 games in which he failed to get more than 5 rebounds.

Although Bogut hasn't met the kind of expectations that go with being a #1 overall pick, there are reasons to be excited if you're a Bucks fan. Bogut is a terrific passer, far better than his numbers suggest (in 2007-08, he had 5 assists or more in 9 games). And he has also shown flashes of extraordinary rebounding. His rebounding average has improved each season. If he can remain consistent in that department, Bogut can be one of the league's best rebounders in the coming years.

Bogut has also made great strides in the defensive department. That improvement is represented in his 1.7 blocks per game average from last season. Once Bogut can find a way to incorporate all parts of his game on a consistent basis, the sky is the limit.

There are even more reasons to be excited about Ellis' future in the NBA.

Despite weighing just over 175 pounds, the Mississippi native attacks the basket without fear. Like Allen Iverson and Dwyane Wade, Ellis embraces contact around the basket. Yet he still managed to play in 81 games for the Warriors last season. That tenacity also makes Ellis a phenomenal rebounder for his position (4.9 rebounds per game last season).

Ellis' speed is another reason he has become such an effective pro player. He deserves to be mentioned with the likes of Tony Parker and Leandro Barbosa in conversations about the league's quickest player.

After the 2006-07 season, Ellis was awarded the league's Most Improved Player Award. Sometimes when a player wins that award, he finds it difficult to continue improving. But Ellis is the exception. From his second to third season, Ellis was able to cut down on his turnovers and fouls. More importantly, Ellis' rebounding average rose to nearly 5 per game and his field goal percentage went from 47.5% to 53.1%.

For a guard who shoots mainly jump shots and runners, 53% is astonishing.

Ellis has clearly become a better shooter each year, but his field goal percentage improvement can also be attributed to an improved shot selection. After making only 27% of his three-point attempts in '06-07, Ellis stopped shooting so many threes. This smart adjustment had a marked improvement on his individual game and also helped the Warriors to win games.

Despite missing the playoffs, at 48 wins, the Warriors would have been the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. In February, Ellis led this "4th seed" to 7 wins in 10 games by averaging 26 points per game. Down the stretch, when the Warriors needed him most, Ellis was just as amazing; averaging 22.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists in April.

Although Ellis is now a much better player than Bogut, it would be a mistake to fault the Bucks for drafting as they did. Every single team with a first-round pick passed on Ellis. Furthermore, if the Warriors had the first overall pick in that draft, they too would have picked Bogut.

At the time Bogut's draft stock was far ahead of Ellis' for a number of reasons. Bogut's seven-foot frame was too good to pass on. On top of that, he possessed rare big man skills; skills like court vision and a good shooting range.

In addition, Bogut played two years at the collegiate level for the Utah Utes. In other words, scouts had a better idea how he matched up against quality opponents (in contrast to Ellis, who had played only at the high school level). It also hurt Ellis that, in 2005, he was a scrawny high school prospect; not exactly the type of player NBA teams were chomping at the bit to take a gamble on. Until the Warriors took a flier on him, of course.

Although second-guessing is quite common -- and often very fun -- it won't really get us anywhere. What's done is done.

With that said, I'm definitely not ready to give up on Andrew Bogut. And neither are the Bucks. This offseason, the Bucks' front office came to terms with Bogut on a multi-year extension and traded away Yi Jianlian; a clear message to the fans of Milwaukee -- and the rest of the league -- that they have faith in their young Aussie.

Bogut is the future for the Bucks and together they are not ready to concede defeat; especially now that new coach Scott Skiles has joined the organization.

Similarly, Monta Ellis has the faith of the Warriors' front office. Despite his recent suspension (for lying about his recent ankle injury) Ellis is the best guard -- in fact, the best player -- on the team. Although recent developments have clearly not favored him, Ellis may well find success when he returns as the point guard of the Warriors. I don't see him shining as brightly at the PG spot -- he's at his best when he's primarily a scorer -- but hopefully Ellis returns quickly from injury so the Bogut-Ellis debate can continue!

Until then, keep checking with the Davis Sports Deli Top 25 Under 25 to see how Bogut fares against up-and-coming big men like Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden. Our first edition of The List will debut later this week.

 

 

 

 

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